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The Predictor Evaluates the Mat Classic With his machine… By Kurt Lang Wow, here we are again on the eve of another Mat Classic, the greatest sporting spectacle in the state. As usual, I’ve been rabid about hearing as much as I can from the fans and folks. And as usual, I don’t have nearly enough time to tell you about everything I’ve heard—I hope to change that soon. For now, please consider the offering I present. Because of my schedule, I knew I wouldn’t have enough time to get proper rankings out the door before the tournament. So this week, you get the next-best thing, and an opportunity to better understand the way the rankings come about. I am letting the machine do all of the picks this time. That’s right, I didn’t disagree, edit, or otherwise change what you’ll see presented. You’ll just see the way the machine picks ‘em, before I begin the arduous task of reshuffling. It’s actually pretty cool. I let the machine run through all of the brackets, picking winners based upon wrestlers’ career performances. Though the data is incomplete in a couple of geographical locales, I believe the picks are relatively sound (well, at least as good a flipping a coin, and a hundred times as good as asking a basketball player…). The machine does not take into account previous head-to-head results, nor does it get the info some of us have about injuries, conditioning, and the like. It just makes the picks. It awards team points solely on wins—no bonuses for pins, etc. I’ll tell you right now that I disagree with much of what it told me. I’d juggle the daylights out of it if I had the time—but that would kind of negate the experiment. Okay, let’s see how it does. I’ll give you its picks for semifinalists, champions, and teams. Tell me what you think. Drop me a line at wapredictor@hotmail.com and fill me in. And oh yeah---I’ll see you in Tacoma!AB The machine tells me they might have to engrave a new team name on the trophy this year, and after reading the brackets, many of you might agree. Warden just has too many horses in the race to be beat. The battle will really be for second, with just a pin separating Zillah and Royal.
103—Semifinalists Ricky Valadez, Zillah Chris McKinley, Onalaska Frankie Torres, Warden Jeff Cox, Warden 103 Champ— Valadez112—Semifinalists Kerry Green, Lake Roosevelt Albert Sanchez, Mabton Aaron Beckford, Ilwaco Jose Tanguma, Warden 112 Champ— Tanguma119—Semifinalists Nick Pack, Royal Richy Zuniga, Granger Ben Sevigny, Zillah Ismael Campos, Warden 119 Champ— Zuniga125—Semifinalists Eli Zuniga, Granger Jake Leenhouts, Reardan Dominic Ysiano, Cle Elum-Roslyn Spencer Piercy, Royal 125 Champ— Piercy130—Semifinalists Rene Valadez, Zillah Samson Blakeslee, Kalama Dustin Gilbert, Royal Robert Reyes, Warden 130 Champ— Reyes135—Semifinalists James Miller, Liberty (Spangle) Josh Whittaker, Rainier Lee Morrison, Okanogan Bryce Doehne, Kalama 135 Champ— Whittaker140—Semifinalists Shane Bison, North Beach Juan Carlos Baca, Zillah Joey Egia, Warden Tyson Marchand, Lake Roosevelt 140 Champ— Carlos Baca145—Semifinalists Shane Proctor, Lake Roosevelt Jason Thomas, Almira-Coulee-Hartline Marty Trockell, Liberty Bell Eddy Cerrillos, Royal 145 Champ— Proctor152—Semifinalists Kyle Fitch, Ritzville Rick Mature, Ocasta (Westport) Nick Miller, Rainier Andrew Lynes, Wahluke 152 Champ— Miller160—Semifinalists Josh Butler, Royal Shane Innes, Jr., Lake Roosevelt David Steele, Okanogan Kyle Wyle, Royal 160 Champ— Innes171—Semifinalists Javen Haley, Ilwaco Nick Vermeer, Royal Nick Summers, Ocasta (Westport) Nick Lucas, Oroville 171 Champ— Lucas189—Semifinalists Chase Campbell, Kalama Greg Talbot, Warden Gene Slack, Zillah Brad Ellis, Royal 189 Champ— Slack215—Semifinalists Manny Calixto, Mabton Mike Lee, Ocasta (Westport) Jonny Pittman, Warden Jason Beagle, Lake Roosevelt 215 Champ— Calixto275—Semifinalists Timote Uasike, Zillah Matt Leenhouts, Reardan Clark Pauls, Davenport Mario Regino, Toledo 275 Champ— Uasike2A Are you shaking your head yet? Well, maybe there is something to this, after all. In 2A, I started the season with Elma as my pick for the win. The machine tells me otherwise, and frankly, I can’t argue. Connell, like Warden, is another team with too much power to ignore. Mount Baker got lots of guys to state, and they are one of those teams that just, you know, "reloads". If my machine is to be believed, there will be a shootout for the fourth-place trophy, but I dunno. Lakeside has such a great tradition…
103—Semifinalists Edgar Mendez, Connell Jon Bennett, Newport Justin Smith, Elma Romi Gonzalez, Grandview 103 Champ— Gonzalez112—Semifinalists Dago Velasquez, Connell Anthony Kautz, Castle Rock Kameron Hopkins, East Valley (Yakima) Stu Draper, Ridgefield 112- Champ— Draper119—Semifinalists Rick Shattuck, Orting John Limbeck, Cashmere Joel Flores, Toppenish Lorenzo Longoria, Quincy 119 Champ— Limbeck125—Semifinalists Tyler Glahn, Blaine Aaron Sample, Elma Anthony Zender, Mount Baker Angel Gonzalez, Toppenish 125 Champ— Zender130—Semifinalists Matt Dillin, Ephrata Seth Weatherman, Jenkins (Chewelah) Jordan Bradbury, Montesano Justin Van Dyke, Nooksack Valley 130 Champ— Bradbury135—Semifinalists Craig Jackson, Nooksack Valley Brad Prather, Connell Bryan Caraway, Goldendale Brett Bailey, Lakewood 135 Champ— Bailey140—Semifinalists Derek Williams, Tonasket Zack Nees, Lakeside (Nine Mile Falls) Adam Logozzo, Grandview Chase Reed, Orting 140 Champ— Williams145—Semifinalists Michael Griffith, Lakeside (Nine Mile Falls) Micah Aday, La Center B.J. Vavra, Mount Baker Josh Corke, Kiona-Benton 145 Champ— Corke152—Semifinalists Phil Eggleston, Jenkins (Chewelah) Larry Lytle, Hoquiam Chris York, Vashon Island Juventino Orozco, Connell 152 Champ— Orozco160—Semifinalists Stephen Gruginski, Goldendale Tom Snell, Lakeside (Nine Mile Falls) John Roehling, Ephrata D.J. Rathjen, Mount Baker 160 Champ— Rathjen171—Semifinalists Josh Corriell, Kiona-Benton Josh Edmonson, Medical Lake Dan Honeycutt, La Center Jimmy Orozco, Connell 171 Champ— Orozco189—Semifinalists Evan Mattingly, Vashon Island T.J. Gilmore, Quincy Jose Moreno, Othello Brandon Hern, South Whidbey 189 Champ— Hern215—Semifinalists Jake Healy, Ephrata Jon Edmonds, Lakewood Kyle Simmons, Ridgefield Brady Jonas, Mount Baker 215 Champ— Jonas275—Semifinalists Joey Onigkeit, Riverside (Chattaroy) Jamie Rakevich, Elma Jim Rushing, Ridgefield Doug Dearborn, Connell 275 Champ— Rakevich3A Well…….. If you haven’t been a little incredulous so far, maybe now is the time to start. But, I have to say, the database is more solid for the 3A and 4A than for the last two classifications. Sedro-Woolley is a team with some destiny here. The machine says they’ll place nine, and score with all twelve they send in twelve different weight classes. Do you think that anyone will beat the Cubs—of course not—the machine tells you so. Whoa—what about that Ferndale team with Hall-of-Famer Lee Anderson in his retirement swan song—Can the Golden Eagles provide yet another trophy to the elder statesman of the Northwest League? The machine says yes, but watch out for Wapato.
103—Semifinalists Robert Arnestad, Peninsula Ricky Farmer, Washougal Rogelio Diaz, Wapato Travis Martin, Sequim 103 Champ— Diaz112—Semifinalists Jon Walker, Peninsula Zach Morgan, Selah Randy Cuellar, Lynden Mike Cady, Aberdeen 112 Champ— Morgan119—Semifinalists Kelly Austreng, Kelso Jeff Linder, Timberline Craig Fawcett, Franklin Pierce Aaron Pedferri, Cedarcrest 119 Champ— Pedeferri125—Semifinalists Peter Yiap, Tyee Brett Chambers, Ferndale Teddy Herrera, Wapato Mark Rowe, Liberty (Issaquah) 125 Champ— Herrera130—Semifinalists Jacob Evans, Sedro-Woolley Darren DeBoer, Cedarcrest Sammy Macias, Wapato Mark Walseth, Aberdeen 130 Champ— Walseth135—Semifinalists Kyle Bounds—Columbia River Chester Davison, Washougal Devin Knight, Sedro-Woolley Justin Studer, Liberty (Issaquah) 135 Champ— Knight140—Semifinalists Skylar Marler, White River Colin Thorne, Anacortes Clint Burnett, West Valley (Yakima) Jake Kazeck, Mark Morris 140 Champ— Thorne145—Semifinalists Kye Kirkpatrick, Anacortes Anthony Haukenberry, White River Andy Hamilton, WF West Tony Dorward, Mount Rainier 145 Champ-- Haukenberry152—Semifinalists Hans Gray, Ferndale Ben Sathre, Mark Morris Billy Weisberger, Cheney Jonny Wicker, Sedro-Woolley 152 Champ— Wicker160—Semifinalists Tyler Vanderlinden, Ferndale Mike Watson, White River Johnathan Decker, Sedro-Woolley Sam Wagg, Eastmont 160 Champ— Decker171—Semifinalists Adam Yohe, Kelso Kyle Frawley, White River Andy Andrews, Sedro-Woolley Matt Moore, Columbia River 171 Champ— Andrews189—Semifinalists Matt Vignalli, Columbia River Jim Wilson, WF West Chet Slevin, Ferndale Robbie Westerman, Cedarcrest 189 Champ— Slevin215—Semifinalists Chris Keeney, North Thurston Jehra Moore, Sedro-Woolley Reese Cogdill, Lynnwood Kyle Keith, Sequim 215 Champ— Keith275—Semifinalists Pat West, Tumwater Josh Fonokalafi, Columbia River Jesus Gonzalez, Wapato Jeff Seath, Aberdeen 275 Champ—Gonzalez 4A Gosh, You’ve gotten this far. Or maybe you skipped here to your favorite. It doesn’t matter—we’re close to the end. The 4A ranks are probably the tightest of the bunch. With the Wesco moving up (including Lake Stevens), this is now the toughest classification, top-to-bottom. This doesn’t mean it’s harder to win in, it just means there are more wrestlers with the potential to ruin someone’s day (Lots of guys found that out at Regionals…) I really figured the machine would have Lake Stevens near the top of this group, but I think the fact that the Vikings missed much of the season sort of drains the rankings—not enough data to judge. However, Moses Lake has plenty of data, and they have a great tradition. I won’t argue with this pick.
103—Semifinalists Joel Anderson, Enumclaw Reese Whitely, Wenatchee John Hanks, Marysville-Pilchuck Ryan Trotter, Decatur 103 Champ— Trotter112—Semifinalists Matt Hadreas, Edmonds-Woodway Justin Davidson, Bothell Mike Rodriguez, Kamiakin Jake Gonzalez, Enumclaw 112 Champ— Rodriguez119—Semifinalists Tyler Sherfey, Kamiakin Jesse Getchell, Heritage Luke Kuhn, Gonzaga Prep Brett Wagner, Rogers (Puyallup) 119 Champ— Getchell125—Semifinalists Burke Barnes, Lake Stevens Damon Jordan, Evergreen (Vancouver) Tyson Hintz, Moses Lake Mickey Elliott, Spanaway Lake 125 Champ— Barnes130—Semifinalists Zach Dompier, Moses Lake Mike Roggenkamp, Enumclaw Paul Sewell, Inglemoor Eric Curnett, Lake Stevens 130 Champ— Sewell135—Semifinalists Jimmy Andrews, Curtis Nick Tompkins, Tahoma Ariel Garza, Moses Lake Chris Fisher, Heritage 135 Champ— Garza140—Semifianlists Brandon Hunter, Kentwood Bryan Seibel, Moses Lake Marcus Garthe, Lake Washington Kenny McNeese, Auburn 140 Champ— Seibel145—Semifinalists Tyson Paul, Eisenhower Stephen Folden, Kentwood Fred Farmer, Heritage Nick Johnson, Tahoma 145 Champ— Farmer152—Semifinalists Dusty Long, Mountain View Josh Wiebenga, Enumclaw Cody Hughes, Southridge Pat Pitsch, Spanaway Lake 152 Champ— Pitsch160—Semifinalists Josh Mcdonnell, Cascade (Everett) Christian Anderson, Lake Stevens Jay Carlile, Battle Ground Derrick McLaughlin, Capital 160 Champ— Anderson171—Semifinalists Paul Reiner, Walla Walla David Schlosser, Redmond Kyle Bressler, Decatur Ryan Qualls, Tahoma 171 Champ— Qualls189—Semifinalists Tony Michalski, East Valley (Spokane) Ryan Van Doren, Mead Tyler Moyer, Central Kitsap Yuri Malamura, Spanaway Lake 189 Champ— Van Doren215—Semifinalists Dan Gonzalez, Ferris Ty Watterson, Enumclaw Chris Thoreson, East Valley (Spokane) Brad Farmer, Heritage 215 Champ— Watterson275—Semifinalists Justin Moody, East Valley (Spokane) Blaine Guenther, Bethel Richard Kowell, Mount Vernon Mark Trott, Auburn 275 Champ— MoodyThere you go. A preview of the Mat Classic, as projected by my computer. I don’t figure you ought to stay away from Tacoma now that the machine has weighed in—It’s just possible that there’ll be some differences in scores, matches, and so on. I hope to see you at the greatest show in the state! Ciao.
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